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Statistics & Probability
Inference, estimators, Bayesian methods, and uncertainty quantification.
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When MMM and Incrementality Disagree: What Is Each Actually Telling Us?
7+ hour, 22+ min ago (1185+ words) Exploring why a well-fitting Bayesian MMM and a randomized geo experiment can produce different estimates of advertising impact. That was my motivation for revisiting the subject, this time approaching it through the analysis itself rather than starting with a theoretical…...
Galton’s law of filial regression. Understanding the phenomenon of regression towards the mean
12+ hour, 14+ min ago (536+ words) Do you believe that your talent and beauty must be inherited by your children? I hope you do not think so because the statistics are more conservative on this issue. A statistical principle called “regression to the mean” will help…...
How to Build Trustworthy Causal Models, Part 2
18+ hour, 35+ min ago (629+ words) Kind of how Sherlock Holmes says, “If you eliminate the impossible, what remains, no matter how implausible, must be the truth.” We can thus define propensity as the probability of receiving treatment W, given the covariates X. Thus, given any…...
When the world curves, bend the line
1+ day, 11+ hour ago (881+ words) In #01 we drew the best straight line through messy points. Last time we learned how a machine walks downhill to fit it. This time the points curve, and the line has to bend. Same three chapters: where it came from,…...
The Variance Homogeneity Masterclass: Unpacking Levene’s Test, Homoscedasticity, and Robust Statistical Inference
1+ day, 18+ hour ago (658+ words) Among the pantheon of diagnostic tools designed to police this assumption, Levene’s Test stands as one of the most reliable, enduring, and versatile sentinels. Unlike its more fragile historical ancestors, Levene’s Test provides a robust mechanism to evaluate whether multiple…...
Cohort — SSRF’den Root’a Bir HTB Yolculuğu
1+ day, 20+ hour ago (531+ words) Amaç sadece “flag’i almak” değil, her adımda neden o komutu çalıştırdığımı ve ne bulduğumu anlamak, bu yüzden aşağıda her adımı mümkün olduğunca sade anlatmaya çalıştım. Her sızma testinde olduğu gibi işe hedefi tanımakla başlıyorum. Makineye IP üzerinden erişebiliyorum, ilk işim…...
Yapay Zekânın Yalan Söylemesini Nasıl Engelleriz?
1+ day, 23+ hour ago (239+ words) Yapay zekâ asistanlarına bir soru sorduğunuzda bazen son derece ikna edici ama tamamen yanlış bir yanıt aldığınız oldu mu? “Şu kitabın yazarı kim?” diye sorduğunuzda gerçekte var olmayan bir isim duymak ya da geçen yıl değişmiş bir yasayı size eski…...
Simpson’s Paradox — When Every Group Says One Thing and the Total Says the Opposite
2+ day, 1+ hour ago (1191+ words) The total said one thing. Every group inside it said the opposite. Both were calculated correctly. Imagine two hospitals. In every department — cardiology, surgery, emergency — Hospital A saves a higher share of its patients than Hospital B. Yet when the…...
“Average of Ratios or Ratio of Averages?” Why Your iROAS Depends on Who’s Asking
2+ day, 4+ hour ago (1323+ words) Lets imagine a hypothetical scenario: two marketing analysts measure the same geo experiment. Same regions, same budget cut, same data set of incremental revenue and incremental cost. One reports an iROAS of $3.3 the other reports $6.4 Neither made an error. Both…...
How to Write A/B Test Hypotheses That Don’t Suck
2+ day, 7+ hour ago (1470+ words) The single biggest quality problem in most experimentation programs isn’t statistical — it’s conceptual. Teams run tests without hypotheses. They have ideas, and they call those ideas hypotheses, but they’re not. “Let’s test a bigger CTA button” is not a hypothesis....